23
Feb
Domestic macro sentiment picks up, copper price is still easy to rise but hard to fall in the short term
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Copper prices in Shanghai rose on Wednesday (February 22). As of the close of the day, the main 2304 contract closed at 70,200 yuan/ton, and the price rose by 260 yuan, or 0.37%.
In terms of spot goods, the average price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper is 70370 yuan / ton, an increase of 560 yuan from the previous transaction.
macro aspect
The minutes of the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve announced that slowing down interest rate hikes is still the first choice, but there are still concerns about inflation, and expectations of higher interest rates and longer periods of time exist at the same time; the macroeconomic outlook faces downside risks.
But the Fed's Bullard said the U.S. economy was more resilient than expected, and the market had overestimated the risk of a U.S. recession.
On the domestic front, the macro sentiment has picked up. With the approach of the two sessions, the market has renewed expectations for policy stimulus and domestic economic recovery.
market
After the price rose, the sentiment of the downstream to buy goods weakened significantly, and the supply of scrap copper was concentrated, the consumption of scrap copper was strong, and the sales of refined copper were weak.
The fundamentals of internal weakness and external strength continue.
Inventory
The Shanghai copper inventory in the previous period decreased by 14 tons to 133,795 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 200 tons to 65,425 tons.
At present, the demand is still relatively weak, and the recovery of terminal demand still needs to wait, and the basic support for copper prices is limited.
Overall
The main reason for the rise in copper prices comes from the recovery of macro sentiment and the fermentation of supply-side problems.
With the recovery of the domestic economy and the resumption of construction projects one after another, market sentiment has picked up significantly.
Although domestic stocks are in stockpiles, it is expected that this part of stock will be consumed during the peak season.
In the short term, the situation that copper prices are easy to rise but hard to fall is still continuing. With the widening gap between long and short, the probability of high fluctuations in copper prices is relatively high.
In terms of spot goods, the average price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper is 70370 yuan / ton, an increase of 560 yuan from the previous transaction.
macro aspect
The minutes of the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve announced that slowing down interest rate hikes is still the first choice, but there are still concerns about inflation, and expectations of higher interest rates and longer periods of time exist at the same time; the macroeconomic outlook faces downside risks.
But the Fed's Bullard said the U.S. economy was more resilient than expected, and the market had overestimated the risk of a U.S. recession.
On the domestic front, the macro sentiment has picked up. With the approach of the two sessions, the market has renewed expectations for policy stimulus and domestic economic recovery.
market
After the price rose, the sentiment of the downstream to buy goods weakened significantly, and the supply of scrap copper was concentrated, the consumption of scrap copper was strong, and the sales of refined copper were weak.
The fundamentals of internal weakness and external strength continue.
Inventory
The Shanghai copper inventory in the previous period decreased by 14 tons to 133,795 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 200 tons to 65,425 tons.
At present, the demand is still relatively weak, and the recovery of terminal demand still needs to wait, and the basic support for copper prices is limited.
Overall
The main reason for the rise in copper prices comes from the recovery of macro sentiment and the fermentation of supply-side problems.
With the recovery of the domestic economy and the resumption of construction projects one after another, market sentiment has picked up significantly.
Although domestic stocks are in stockpiles, it is expected that this part of stock will be consumed during the peak season.
In the short term, the situation that copper prices are easy to rise but hard to fall is still continuing. With the widening gap between long and short, the probability of high fluctuations in copper prices is relatively high.
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